Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) Practice Exam

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What is a key feature of Monte Carlo simulation in risk management?

  1. Deterministic outcomes based on average values

  2. Use of a single value for each input variable

  3. Ability to enter a range for each input variable

  4. Creation of static models without randomness

The correct answer is: Ability to enter a range for each input variable

The key feature of Monte Carlo simulation in risk management is its ability to enter a range for each input variable. This simulation technique allows for the incorporation of uncertainty and variability in the model by using a spectrum of values rather than a single fixed input. By defining a range for each variable, Monte Carlo simulation generates multiple scenarios through random sampling, reflecting possible outcomes based on various combinations of inputs. This results in a distribution of possible results rather than a singular prediction, providing a more comprehensive understanding of potential risks and their likelihoods. This methodology is particularly useful in fields such as finance, project management, and supply chain management, where identifying risk and making informed decisions are critical. The ability to model scenarios that reflect real-world variability enhances risk assessment and facilitates better strategic planning.